DTN Midday Grain Comments 11/20 10:48
All Grains Higher at Midday
Corn is 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are 1 to 4 cents higher and wheat is 1
to 4 cents higher at midday.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 95. The dollar index is 6
points higher. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are flat with crude
unchanged. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are firmer with gold up
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents higher at midday. December is back to testing the
highs overnight with weaker spread trade and spillover support from soybeans
before fading a bit during the day session. The export wire remained active
with 131,000 metric tons (mt) sold to unknown and 158,270 mt sold to Mexico.
Ethanol has lost some ground to unleaded, reducing the premium. Meanwhile,
margins remain fairly stable with short-term demand the biggest issue going
into a holiday week, along with further lockdowns. Basis remains generally
strong. On the December contract, support is the 20-day at $4.11 with the lower
Bollinger band at $3.94 as the next level down with the fresh high scored at
$4.28 1/2 scored Wednesday with the upper Bollinger band at $4.30 above that.
Soybeans trade is 1 to 4 cents higher at midday. Trade scored new highs
overnight as spreads soften a bit with trade still looking for confirmation of
rumored export sales and two-sided trade at times Friday morning. Meal is flat
to $1 lower, and oil is 25 to 35 points lower. South America has some dry
pockets building with northern Brazil looking to see more moisture short term,
with the southern one-third forecast to be very dry the next week, and mixed
action in Argentina. Basis remains strong as we continue to work to max out our
logistics capacity to ship the needed export bushels with freight issues
remaining in play. The January chart has resistance at the fresh high of 11.96
3/4 scored Friday morning, with the upper Bollinger band at $12.09. Support is
the 20-day at $11.15.
Wheat trade is 1 to 4 cents firmer at midday. Chicago action is leading
again with rangebound action continuing with little near-term change to weather
patterns. The dollar rally has faded again, along with spillover from row
crops. World export tenders continue to go to Black Sea origin, for the most
part, with little change in overall conditions there. The western Plains look
to remain on the dry side short term. KC is at 43-cent discount to Chicago with
spreads remaining rangebound. Minneapolis is at -48. KC December chart
resistance is the 20-day at $5.52, which we are testing at midday, and support
is the lower Bollinger band at $5.40.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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